As the Turkish president shifts his focus toward Kyiv, he is essentially testing Moscow’s new red lines. How firmly is Russia prepared to react in a situation where it is simultaneously fending off a Ukrainian counteroffensive and recovering from the Wagner mutiny?
In Russia, last year’s exodus of Western companies and Russian entrepreneurs is creating opportunities to entrench the regime, as a wartime redistribution of assets belonging to those who left the country promises to enrich what remains of the middle class and bind it to the state.
Beijing has nothing to offer Moscow in terms of ideology, but will gladly share its ideas for the economy and political control.
If Putin changes his mind about Prigozhin and initiates some sort of revenge, Minsk will not be able to protect the Wagner leader, who knows that full well. Lukashenko in turn cannot believe the promises of Prigozhin, a warlord who has just betrayed his patron, to diligently follow Belarusian rules.
Putin’s former bodyguard and current Tula governor Alexei Dyumin is eternally tipped for a position in the federal government, yet is still waiting after seven years.
China may have the opportunity to turn Russia into its vassal, but it has no compelling reason to do so.
Plentiful resources contribute to long-term success if channeled to the development of institutions, but Azerbaijan, like many other autocracies, is instead using them to burnish its image abroad and cement the status quo.
The uprising has highlighted a crisis of management in Russia’s political system and the huge contradiction within the Russian armed forces. But it looks like the Kremlin is not intending to take any measures in response, apart from dictating how state propaganda should frame the event
The EU should develop a comprehensive and sustainable strategy to address the issues surrounding European companies’ assets in Russia. Such a strategy should encompass legal, political, and economic considerations with the aim of safeguarding the interests of these firms.
Xi Jinping has no other option than to support Vladimir Putin—or someone like him
Alexandra Prokopenko focuses on whether — as some officials are advocating — Russia could actually reduce spending in its next budget despite the war in Ukraine. She also looks at how Yevgeny Prigozhin’s insurrection prompted a huge spike in demand for cash and the rising numbers of Russians moving to Israel.
What China’s Growing Regional Ambitions Mean for Moscow
By solving a Russian domestic crisis, the Belarusian leader has effectively joined the ranks of Russian grandees vying for Putin’s favor by eliminating irritating problems that could distract the president from his high-stakes geopolitical machinations.
Although the immediate threat of revolt has been extinguished, the episode may embolden future challengers to Russia’s status quo
The regime is driven by ideas of supremacy and messianism, nationalism and imperialism. In this respect, there is no difference between Putin and his inner circle and Prigozhin.
However murky and ill conceived, Prigozhin’s mutiny did manage to do one critical thing: it poked a hole in the Kremlin’s campaign to assure Russians that everything is fine — that the economy is booming, the military is focused on winning, and the war in Ukraine won’t come for them.
The Wagner mercenary boss was counting on solidarity from senior army officers, and since he came close to reaching Moscow without encountering any particular resistance, he might not have been completely mistaken.
Putin will have to either continue to act in the precarious role of protector of the “corrupted elite” or, under pressure from the events of last weekend, embark on a purge of that elite.
Andrei Kolesnikov reflects on the current state of the Putin regime, the Russian elite, and systemic liberals in government, as well as the possibility of civil war in Russia. In his opinion, the prevailing scenario in post-Putin Russia will be an exceedingly difficult, but relatively peaceful transition to normalcy.
While saying little, Putin has revealed that military failures are entirely at odds with his vision for the future, while several more rounds of escalation—up to and including strikes on a third country—are something he can envisage.