Türkiye’s presidential elections were arguably one of the region’s most closely watched political events in 2023. Following his victory in the May 28 runoff election, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has secured another five years in office.
Türkiye’s recent foreign policy has been characterized by reconciliation and normalization efforts on multiple fronts. These have included renewed relations with Egypt, with a symbolic handshake between Erdoğan and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, as well a presidential visit to the United Arab Emirates and a meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman for the first time since murder of Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul. It is likely that these diplomatic efforts will continue as Erdoğan’s new term begins; indeed, the presence of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan at Erdoğan’s inauguration ceremony and Sisi’s congratulatory message, along with the official elevation of Egyptian-Turkish diplomatic relations, are the first signs of this ongoing trend.
Following his election victory, Erdoğan also received congratulations from Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, who emphasized that ongoing Turkish-Iranian collaboration would create even “more favorable conditions” for regional peace and stability. Despite key foreign policy disagreements—including their divergent positions on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the future of Syria’s leadership—relations between Iran and Türkiye under Erdoğan have remained close. During Erdoğan's visit to Tehran last year, for example, eight agreements were signed between the two countries in the areas of trade, security, science, and sports.
Although it is expected that Türkiye will continue to work with Iran going forward, the relationship will largely depend on a Turkish-Syrian rapprochement.
While Türkiye severed its ties with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in 2011 and has consistently backed Syrian opposition groups, Türkiye will likely eventually resume full relations with the ruling Syrian regime. This is, in part, due to domestic pressures: the future of 3.4 million Syrian refugees in Türkiye was one of the key issues in the recent elections, and over the past year, Erdoğan has pushed for their repatriation. So too do Türkiye’s military operations to prevent a Kurdish-led state in the north of Syria require collaboration with the Assad regime. Therefore, we might see shuttle diplomacy between Ankara and Damascus, with Hakan Fidan, the former Turkish director of national intelligence and the new foreign minister, playing a key role.
Growing normalization between Türkiye and Syria was also evident before the recent elections. Moscow hosted a meeting between the defense ministers of Russia, Iran, Syria and Türkiye on April 25, as well as the first official meeting of foreign ministers on May 10. There, according to former Turkish foreign minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, the ministers discussed the importance of collaborating to combat terrorism, facilitate the safe return of refugees, and safeguard Syria’s territorial integrity.
Recent diplomatic developments in the Middle East, including Syria’s readmission into the Arab League and growing rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, might help to promote reconciliation between Türkiye and Syria at the highest levels. However, the Assad regime has emphasized that any reconciliation will depend on the full departure of Turkish troops from Syrian territory.
In the event that Türkiye and Syria resume diplomatic relations, Iran, which is exerting a significant amount of effort to ensure that Assad remains in power, will not want to be excluded from the negotiations. These would help to determine the “favorable conditions” for a partnership between Ankara and Tehran, because the benefits of such a Turkish-Syrian rapprochement would be wide-ranging. Türkiye could take necessary steps to decrease the international isolation towards Syria, for example, and help to revive economic and security relations across the region.
Undoubtedly, if Raisi pays his first official visit to Türkiye, the future of Turkish policy towards Syria would be one of the first points of discussion. In an era of reconciliation between longstanding enemies across the Middle East, it would not be surprising to see Türkiye normalize ties with Syria—a major geopolitical shift with positive implications for bilateral Iran-Türkiye relations.
Ahmet Furkan Ozyakar holds a PhD in Politics from the University of Exeter. His work focuses on Iran’s foreign policy and public diplomacy. Follow him on Twitter @ahmetozyakar.