Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
As the war in Ukraine grinds on, the notoriously troubled relationship between Georgia and Russia has, to the surprise of many, entered a new period of increased stability.
The Georgian Dream’s gains from rapprochement with Moscow are quite nebulous, while the risks are very real. But the party itself, which has made a number of unforced errors lately, may see things differently.
Even if Georgia knew nothing about Russia’s decision beforehand, the current arrangement suits both the Kremlin and official Tbilisi: it helps Georgian Dream to hold on to power, while Russia is building on barely existent ties with Georgia that may lead to greater gains for Moscow in the future.
The Georgian government’s attempt to pass restrictive legislation on foreign influence provoked mass protests that ultimately led to the withdrawal of the bill. To anchor Georgia to Western values, the EU should support the country's transition to institutional democracy.
It is critical for the other pro-European groups to unite around common candidates and a platform that clearly renounces Georgia’s reincorporation into the Russian sphere of influence. Georgians want a European future for their country, and hope to wake up from a dream that has become a nightmare.
In March, they even attempted to pass a law designating pro-Western and pro-democratic civil society organizations as “agents of foreign influence.” With support and encouragement from Moscow, the Georgian government is building an authoritarian state in Russia’s image.
Georgia’s European future is falling victim to the country’s domestic power struggle. The EU’s delay in granting Georgia candidate status could strengthen the pull of Russia and silence pro-reform actors.
n one sense, the war did not really begin in 2022. It did not even begin in Ukraine. It started the first time Vladimir Putin invaded one of Russia’s neighbours and got away with it. That was 15 years ago, in Georgia.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine prompted the EU to break several taboos, including offering candidate status to Ukraine and Georgia. The enlargement process, which has stalled over the past decade, is likely to be hindered by the complex revisions required, including the question of voting rights.
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